It’s hard to put a finger on the right moment when Bitcoin went from being an idea to being a movement. What is beyond doubt is that by November 22, 2009, when Satoshi welcomed members to the new Bitcoin forum, hosted on Bitcointalk.org, his idea had taken root and then there was a small group of believers helping to support what would be something incredible.
If it were not for the tenacity of the early adopters, who kept the idea of Satoshi during its weakest hours, along with good luck and the strengthening of geopolitical events, it is possible that Bitcoin might not have erupted the space this much. Its current survival and robustness can be attributed to the power of Satoshi’s idea, along with the efforts of fans who worked late into the night to patch critical bugs and feed Bitcoin until the nascent network was strong enough to survive .
Bitcoin is the first implementation of a concept known as “cryptographic currency”, which was first described in 1998 by Wei Dai on the email list “cypherpunks”, where he proposed the idea of a new type of money that would use the cryptography to control its creation and transactions, rather than a centralized authority.
The Bitcoin protocol and its software are published openly and any programmer anywhere in the world can review it or create its own modified version of the software. Satoshi’s influence has been limited to the fact that the changes he made were adopted by the others and, therefore, he did not control Bitcoin.
In the same way that no one controls the technology behind the electronic mail, Bitcoin does not have any owners either and was born as an anachronistic idea, product of the global recession of the economy and the real estate crisis of 2008 that caused losses and are still difficult to compute.
From the user’s perspective, Bitcoin is nothing more than a mobile or desktop application that promotes a personal Bitcoin wallet and allows the user to send and receive BTC with it. This is how it works for most users.
Despite how complicated it can be to understand the underlying technology behind bitcoin for common users, Bitcoin is synonymous with financial freedom for many and for a few years in its short existence. It has already generated a major stir to be remembered as a disruptive technology of the 21st century.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and Regular Predictions
The price has not managed to break the $4200 barrier as an immediate resistance level and has made a small correction to the current trading price of $4156. Its strong support is still at S1 $4120.3 and it is possible that if the bullish push is maintained, we would, in the short term get to see a test to the roof of R1.
When BTC reaches the target zone, things will become very interesting, in the medium term.
A double lid will be painted latest by April 24 at $ 4280.
This could lead to a (healthy) correction towards 3980. In addition, the Aroon Uptrend indicator is overbought in multiple time frames. The resistance at $4220 is also extremely strong and could take more time to break.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin, despite the defamation around its disuse due to problems of scalability and negative propaganda of large financial institutions to link it with negative news relating to terrorism, laundering and fraud, continues to be the main dominant asset of the ecosystem with more than 50.5% of contribution of the market share of cryptocurrencies.
Despite its bifurcations suffered in recent years by divisions of technical criteria on its problem of scalability and time of delay for processing micropayments, the main reference of the ecosystem has proved to survive, thanks to a strong and solid protocol that buoyed its origins.
Even at some point in the recent history, Bitcoin has achieved what other altcoins have not been able to. Thus, it can be opined that Gold and Bitcoin are probably the prime means for storing value shelter.
Bitcoin has solved the block size problem thanks to scalability solutions such as SegWit and recently, Lightning Network (LN), its most clear Successful example of micropayment solutions.
Even LN in its first recent year has shown that it can be a powerful scalability solution expected by many for simple adoption from the common user.
Integrated by a core group of developers, the network is protected by the community and its usefulness is beginning to permeate as users realize that the cryptocurrency is accepted by any progressive trader anywhere in the world.
While there is a lot of bureaucracy in crypto exchanges, it is only a matter of time before detractors run out of reasons to bother and realize that there is a lot of development behind.
Forced to persevere when prices fell in 2018 after printing a parabolic curve in 2017, there seems to be a natural recovery.
In most of the traditional economies of the fiduciary currency, a substantial part of the economic activity from which the fundamental data are derived is done by cash, which is totally anonymous and can not be studied directly.
Bitcoin and other digitally-native currencies that use a distributed consensus form, such as a Blockchain in this case, have a public record of every transaction that has taken place over time, where anyone with an Internet connection can freely access.
Moreover, its unique deflationary policy has led it to maintain, together with its consensus protocol, the privileged place of the general ranking, despite numerous competitors that have sought to face and provide solutions to intensive problems such as energy expenditure, scalability and security of the net.
Perhaps the most important factor that drives the value of the BTC, in addition to the speculation of course, are the number of users and the activity of those users, which is exponential over the years and this gives an idea of the extent of adoption of the main digital asset.
Recently the adoption of Bitcoin has increased significantly with new projects queuing to use the digital asset. BTC is now being used e in trains, concerts, public services and current payments. The imminent possibility that popular social networks ( Facebook, Whatsapp, Telegram) can integrate crypto payments, already indicates that mass use is coming soon and given its deflationary nature, it is possible that its price will grow even more in the coming months as these new use cases materialize.
Peter Todd recently scandalized the networks, saying that Bitcoin is inflationary, a statement that has met strong opposition from the crypto community, given the interests of the miners on one hand, and traders on the other hand who see BTC as a digital gold.
If it is inflationary, something that Todd himself indicates could take 20 years to occur in the event that he finds sufficient support in the network, it would take investors away from the field.
In my @WhatBitcoinDid interview I mentioned how Bitcoin should have had a 0.1% or 1% monetary inflation tax to pay for security.
Something I didn't mention – and should have – is I think the 21 million BTC limit is so fundamental it's more likely Bitcoin will die than change it.
— Peter Todd (@peterktodd) March 22, 2019
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Technical analysis
Historically, Bitcoin has been a carousel of ups and downs, each time with higher maximums alternated by lesser values as we can see in the following graph.
With the below data in specific dates, we will try to evaluate what would be the future scenario for Bitcoin in Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2019, and predict if we can see a value of $20,000 this year, and what would be the value of BTC a year after being reached.
In November 2017, Bitcoin began its upward trend with a price of $8357.10, and then shot up to its historic high 27 days later at the price of $ 19,874.60.
Five days later, Bitcoin saw its corrective sentiment to reach $10,818.10 per unit and to take off again to its second historic high of $ 17,151.10 in January 2018. One month later, Bitcoin followed its second minimum peak to reach values of $ 6,029.90.
After a whole year with crypto winter, BTC has been able to maintain highs and lows, but until December 15, 2018 when it bottomed out its third clearest bearish momentum in history, depreciating by 70% to reach Support levels of $3187.90.
This year, Bitcoin has not displayed major abrupt changes to highlight, oscillating movements between the bands of $3800- $4200 in recent months.
Bitcoin (BTC) RSI Similarities, Dates and Conversion Rates.
With the intention of visualizing large price fluctuations downward, and then upwards, we will show series of data regarding the RSI indicator and its possible coincidence with the historical milestones under study according the table shown above.
While we use the 1D chart for the BTC/USD pair, we will first observe that the possibility of coincidence exists between low levels of RSI and abrupt price changes of BTC downwards.
As we can see in the previous graph, it is only possible to correlate the strong downward value of BTC with the oversold scenario of the RSI (<20) for December 15, 2018. The rest of the scenarios, although there was a low value of the RSI, remained within the sales average.
However, it is worth noting that these sale values coincide with the RSI averages when Bitcoin historically tends to fall, with averages of 30 <RSI> 20.
This allows us to observe in detail another curious fact, and the time intervals when the value of 30 <RSI> 20 occur, has been somewhat uniform, except for two periods that showed higher values.
As we can see, the RSI pattern is cyclical every 69 days or so. Therefore, from the last cycle of this indicator we could predict that for the first half of April (Q2 2019), Bitcoin could fall at the corrective price of $3980, as an immediate support.
Analogous to the previous procedure, we studied the oversold scenario for the RSI and we observed three well-defined patterns and two approximations that could indicate a prediction of the next big bullish rally for BTC.
According to this last graph, the RSI coincidences in BTC suggest the next big bullish rally for 245 days counted from February 23, 2019.
According to these values, the price of the BTC could take off up to 88% in relation to the top of R1 scheduled for Q2 2019. That is, what we would see for the beginning of Q4 2019. Bitcoin can touche the price of $7482, 40 per unit in a feasible scenario.
If the story really is cyclical, we could see BTC reach levels of $20,000 or more for next year, since it would be the adjustment for an increase of more than 1,400% according to the graphic cycle indicated.
This would according to the RSI indicator mean that BTC could reach the end of Q2 2020 to grow to levels higher than Twenty thousand or more.
For our current year, this possible cyclical pattern indicates that BTC will multiply 2x its current price, so our predictions of levels of $7482 per unit cannot be flagged as preposterous.
In summary, our technical analysis is based on the following results, for the forecast found:
- low RSI values (30 <RSI> 20) and similar highs (RSI> 80)
- Rate of similar increase and decrease.
- Homogeneous time periods (70 AND 245 DAYS)
Therefore, our price forecast for this year is to ratify the analysis previously proposed in this medium on Bitcoin in the short, medium and long term. However, since the market is highly volatile and sensitive to any undesired event, do not rule out any option. What we can affirm, is that Bitcoin in relation to the current price, will rise by the end of the year.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as a financial advice, and should not be taken as such. Today’s Gazette’s will not be accountable for any financial gains made or losses incurred if used as a financial advice. Readers are expected to do adequate research before investing in any cryptocurrency.