In our previous post, we tried to predict the behavior of bitcoin for the rest of the year 2019. For now, the pattern is being fulfilled.
However we must prevent that this particular asset, highly volatile, does not present many short-term correlations that allow us to define a common pattern, however its cyclical behavior is quite evident throughout its history.
To have an idea where we are, we can note that while a good bullish rally driven by whales has generated some optimism for the “prophets of bitcoin”, we should not rule out what their graphs and indicators show: a short-term correction to then boost a rise in its prices to $ 6200 resistance levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Technical Analysis
According to the previous graph, Bitcoin presents a first wave that completes the ‘OWX’ points and a second wave that is expected to be completed by mid-June (‘WXY’) foreseen by the cut of its most immediate maximums and minimums.
This last wave should really be the end of the crypto winter to push the price of BTC to $6,200 long-term resistance levels. To achieve this, we expect to see BTC achieves optimistic end-of-year levels that is greater than $ 7200. Even this whole scenario could be touched if the current BTC support of $4500 is not touched again.
Our previous analysis is reinforced by the behavior of the RSI. In our previous post we analyzed in depth, this indicator for BTC historically, and its correlation for long term this 2019.
Again we can observe that there is a strong correlation between the maximums and minimums of the RSI and the abrupt changes in the price of the asset.
Although the relationship between the rates of rise / fall do not present identical correlation, there is a similar position with difference of 5-6 percentage points in the last observation. And as we can see, a possible bitcoin rally will see a maximum of 94% growth from its current price if the trend continues.
This would be approximately a maximum price of $ 9894 USD per unit for the next bullish rally.
Additionally, we can infer from this analysis that our pump and dump theory will be maintained for this current rally, since Bitcoin has shown that after a high RSI value, it projects a near minimum to oversold levels, with the consequent drop in price.
To counteract this analysis, let’s look at the short indicators.
According to the 1H graph, Bitcoin must complete a small wave between levels of R1 ($ 4976.30) and S1 ($ 4664.10), to stay within the channel projected as breakdown of the wedge and support pattern.
The Stochastic indicator maintains a projection in purchasing levels (@ 68 approximately) without leaving the overbought area, which is the price driver for Bitcoin in the short term.
For its part, Chaikin Money Flow draws a capital outflow from the Bitcoin ecosystem, natural in cases of Pump and Dump, due to the withdrawal of profits from investors.
This pattern is already noticeable in the change of the Bitcoin domain in the last hours of the crypto market, going down from 51% to 50.7% in less than 24 hours.
Despite this, we are optimistic that Bitcoin will continue to grow in its prices as concrete facts such as Bitcoin futures, greater adoption and use cases become a reality throughout this year.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin presents a price of $4807.70 with a strong takeoff of just over 15% in its price in the last 24 hours. Its market cap. is just over $84 billion dollars.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Fundamental Analysis
We all know what Bitcoin represents the whole ecosystem: it is the first, main and most important cryptographic asset since the origin of this new emerging market.
Since the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto generated the first Bitcoin transaction and then from its main use through the ‘Pizza Day’, it was only a matter of time when the cryptocurrency generated a whole system of confidence and numbers ($) in addition to volatility and speculation.
We will not focus our fundamental analysis on knowing the origin of Bitcoin, since everyone knows (or at least the vast majority) why it was born and how it got here. We’ll Focus instead on how the price grew at the dawn of the April Fools’ Day, and if indeed this boost in price means a sustained rally or just a joke on the Holy Innocents’ Day.
Since November 2018 Bitcoin did not reach these levels, the value is now located above the $4800 levels, presenting a rise of up to 17% at its best by touching the psychological barrier of $ 5100. As usual, its collateral effect on the rest of the ecosystem was immediate, with all the altcoins in green.
Bloomberg On Bitcoin (BTC) Rally
According to Bloomberg, the rise in the price may have been due to users who had stop-loss orders at the $ 4200 level, but also to a news item on a little-known website claiming that the SEC in the United States had finally approved an ETF based on Bitcoins, a financial product that has been shuffled for months but has never managed to pass the scrutiny of regulators.
However, at this time there is no evidence that this approval has arrived, and if some bet on this news, it is possible that the takeoff falls short when the information is verified.
What is not unquestionable is that the cryptocurrency market continues to generate many movements each time an external catalyst activates it. Therefore, it is essential to follow the news around the main asset closely for all traders.
Bitcoin (BTC)-Tether (USDT) Changes
There is another important factor to look at, and that is that according to CoinMarketCap, the biggest change that Bitcoin transactions are making is against the Tether (USDT).
The highest volumes recorded come from exchange houses such as Fcoin, Bit-Z and CoinBene. We must remember that the metrics of these and other cryptocurrency exchanges were questioned by the financial firm Bitwise, which argued that they manipulate their exchange volumes to obtain greater exposure in the ecosystem.
Despite this, there is an obvious fact that if we look at the graphs, Bitcoin has been growing steadily, but if we compare with this same date a year ago, those who bought at the time still have a loss greater than 30%.
Is Ethereum Behind BItcoin (BTC) Rally?
Another important fact to highlight in the possible rise of Bitcoin, and that is more solid than the previously exposed, are news associated with Ethereum, with its successful update that allows to advance in the development towards Ethereum 2.0.
As we know, the market around Ethereum has been positive and negative for the ecosystem. Let’s just look back with what triggered a bitcoin price spike in parallel with Ethereum in terms of the “overvalued” view of the second cryptocurrency solution with its Smart Contracts and dApps, to many current problems that led to successful ICOs , which later became many already known problems not only for Ethereum, but for Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins, with the consequent prolonged crypto winter.
That is why if the Vitalik Buterin project manages to resurface and move forward, we could be in the presence of a new bullish rally supported by the solution to many orphaned Ethers that wait for the scalability of Ethereum to launch their machinery of useful applications for Greater adoption of blockchain technology in general.
However, the following hours will be crucial for Bitcoin and everything it represents. As Matti Greespan, an eToro analyst, said, the price of Bitcoin exceeded a critical level and was closely monitored by investors, at $4200.
It is a point of congestion, where the normal thing is that the price has receded. However, when passing it with force, many ‘stop loss’ of investors positioned downwards jump, with or that this ‘closing of shorts’ at night would have been the one that would have finally triggered the purchases.
If so, Bitcoin has managed to pass the level of the 200 Day Simple MA. And its bullish scenario will accelerate rapidly above $5190 to reach maximum highs of $6,200 for the same month of April.
The rumors would have boosted Bitcoin to a certain extent, the theory of the Stop Loss and the end of a prolonged Crypto Winter, could be coming to an end and although we must be cautious with ‘so optimistic’ scenarios As the $20000 ceiling, we could see Bitcoin at least approaching half this value in a short time.
News such as Visa, Paypal and even the Russian Government, in the acquisition of Bitcoin in large volumes on the one hand, and the evolution of traditional methods of payment towards the adoption of cryptocurrencies; could mean a big short-term boost to the ecosystem in general.
Every day, new progress is made in the adoption and development of Bitcoin’s underlying technology, which is why investors increasingly bet on the new digital gold, and in times when the global economy warms up every time. These have placed the main cryptographic asset on top of the arena.
