Not the first of its kind, but Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency industry await an important event that is underway. It is believed that Bitcoin would rally to $40,000 as the event draws closer.
Friday, February 5, a sum of $1 billion BTC options open interest would expire, and a cryptocurrency analyst has linked the possibility of a bullish rally to the event.
As related by Cointelegraph, Brazilian cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman claimed that even though the number of Bitcoin options that are set to expire is small compared to the $4 billion options that expired lately, there are significant signs that the largest cryptocurrency by market cap would make it above $38,000.
Marcel explained that the upcoming expire is quite unusual and the forces of the bear seem quite convincing.
According to the analysis done by Marcel on the total open interest between $28,000 and $43,000, the neutral-to-bullish call options is around $300 million, and it is stacked against $290 million open interest which is from put options.
The analysis further reveals that while there is a stability between the $34k and $36K strikes, the neutral-to-bearish put options are more oblique toward $34K and below.
Although there are speculations that Bitcoin could drive further down below $32,000, there is only a 3,400 BTC contracts imbalance presented by the bearish force to push the crypto price to the south, translating to $109 million open interest.
Even though it doesn’t sound extremely bullish, we would get a 2,800 BTC contracts imbalance if the price of Bitcoin rises to $38K. This on the other hand translates to $106 million open interest.
The analysis also confirmed that 25% drive above or below BTC current price level presents equilibrium from both sides.
To compare the neutral-to-bullish calls options against its comparable put options, the 30% to 20% delta skew is a good indicator. This will let us know the side with which the market makers pricing the risk, the Brazilian analyst said.
At present Bitcoin continues to stay above the $32,000 support level, and it is priced around $37,000 having raised its head slightly today. Similarly, the entire crypto market seems to be signaling bullishness, as altcoins are now on the upside trend of the table.