Bitcoin (BTC), the main cryptocurrency of the ecosystem has been moving downwards starting the week number 18 of the year 2019. For many analysts, it is only a sporadic correction before it reaches the level of six thousand dollars per unit.
At the time of writing, BTC presents a price recovery of + 0.40%, a decrease its market dominance, but an increasing market capitalization of almost $ 1 billion dollars. Its spot price is $ 5,297.91 and its daily volume has increased to $ 12.7 billion.
Will Bitcoin (BTC) growth be somewhat sustainable for the month of May 2019?
Let’s analyze in depth the scenario for this month with spring. But before that, it is important to highlight a very interesting analogy that will allow us infer the future price of BTC for weeks 18, 19 and 20 included in the next month.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: DOUBLE BOTTOM SCENARIO
It is worth noting that BTC is currently drawing a trajectory pattern similar to that of 2015 known as the double bottom. At that time, BTC completed a double bottom pattern, after then, BTC had started a bullish run after the first fund.
At that time the first fund occurred in September 2014 when the price of BTC was pushed from $ 556 to $ 187, followed by a fake Golden Cross, which was a wrong signal of a bullish rally, as we can see in the previous graph.
However, the price decided to go down again forming another Death Cross followed by another Golden Cross, which was the beginning of the real bullfight.
All this happened in a time frame of 215 days, in which BTC obtained two important funds: January 2015 and August 2015 as we can see in the graph.
Now at this moment, BTC seems to be repeating that same pattern. If so, we could see BTC form minimums at around $ 3250 similar to those of December 2018, before pushing its price to levels of R2 ($ 8462), after reaching a fake Golden Cross in May that will boost its price to levels of R1 of $ 6136.3 USD.
If this pattern repeats itself, we would be witnessing a projection of the year maximum prices for the beginning of November 2019 close to the psychological barrier of ten thousand dollars per BTC.
According to this scenario, BTC will go through a bullish period of 115 days after reaching its second fund currently under development.
RSI tells us that the swing between maximum and minimum is approximately 78 days, where we will see BTC reach a maximum growth of 145.5% added to the price. That is, BTC would reach levels of over ten thousand dollars by the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s CORRELATION OF RSI VALUES
If the above scenario is correct, we could then infer the average values for the next three weeks based on a correlation of prices and values of Relative Strength Index.
Taking the time frame of the year 2015 weeks calendar 18, 19 and 20 as reference, extracting their values to then study their differential change, we would have the following panorama exposed:
According to this projection, we would have BTC reach maximum level of value $ 5184.11 for this period from week 18 to week 20. If we project this value in the graph, it generates a discrepancy, since this value has been reached and we are currently out of the pattern initially projected in the post
What is Wrong with the Scenario Previously Presented?
Simple, BTC fulfills a similar pattern in values and graphics, but not exact in dates. Therefore, taking the weeks 18, 19, 20 of the year 2015 as a reference, it does not coincide with the pattern that we currently have drawn by the cryptocurrency.
The way to look for this is through locating the timeline passed from the first fund to the period elapsed currently before the second projected fund. That is, from January 15, 2019 to date, we have spent 136 days.
Therefore, it is expected that BTC will actually grow before the second fund, a 32.98% rise of the price currently quoted. This is approximately $ 6800 per BTC, at the maximum of 215 days between the two funds. According to this graph, 79 days are missing for BTC to reach average values of $ 6800.
Bitcoin (BTC) Projection for Weeks 18,19 and 20
Based on our last analysis of the previous chart, we limited our timeline for the study over the period of 21 continuous days from the 136-days period of the first fund, and recalculated our RSI and BTC prices. The result would be the following:
Obtaining values of the graph and recalculating, the following numbers projected for 2019 would not be:
As we can see, our maximum values for BTC in the target period correspond to $ 5178.51 USD, according to this new analysis. This contrasts the previous forecast with two factors: one is the estimated growth projection by historical price differential in the period studied (3.2%), and on the other hand it does not match the similar graph of previously presented study:
In conclusion, the presented analysis adjusts to the study margins, since a differential of $ 200 is manageable for a quite acceptable projection taking into account the graph historically presented by BTC.
Therefore, taking into account the specific period of weeks 18, 19 and 20, BTC could present a similar scenario with slightly higher values, as described by Elliot Wave in the following graph:
In this graph we can see that BTC has two bands prices which are the $ 5070 line and its immediate resistance at $ 5392, which we believe is perfectly achievable for BTC in the short term, at the end of week 20.
A bearish cross is in full swing as EMA Cross points .
Performing the respective adjustment of the price differential between the exchanges of $ 200 on average between the analysis presented by the values of RSI in Bitfinex and the one projected by Coinbase in the previous chart, we have our best scenario proposed for the first three weeks of May 2019.
As we can see, an ascending parabola is in progress, as indicated by Bollinger keeping the sails within its cloud but below the moving average line. This is a sign of entry for investors.
Aroon Uptrend is heading to the bottom to make way for the current corrective scenario.
And to finish, RSI keeps leveling the pressure forces of buying and selling in the ecosystem.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: The Collateral Effect of Tether and Bitfinex
After the fall in the last 48 hours that led to Bitcoin to less than $ 5000 on some exchanges such as Kraken, motivated by the statement of the New York Attorney General on the concealment of a loss of $ 850 million on Bitfinex, and having used transactions illegitimately to cover those missing funds with Tether, the fear was felt in the market including BTC, with projection that the coin lord will bottom to level of $ 1000.
Fortunately, the cryptocurrency withstood the attacks, thanks to a solid support previously created over $ 4800, managing to stay above the level of five thousand dollars.
This has led some trading gurus to say that the Bitcoin fund has already arrived, although some analysts are still skeptical that Bitcoin can still go down to $ 4200. Above that value, and if the predictions and expectations are met we could soon see a new bullish rally above the $ 5500 that drives it to the expected six thousand dollars per unit.
So we should not be surprised that our last chart is coincident with some analysts’ such as The Crypto Monk, which is confident that BTC will rise again above $ 5500, as highlighted in a tweet from your personal account.
— The Crypto Monk ⛩ (@thecryptomonk) April 27, 2019
On the other hand, influential people of the ecosystem have cataloged the leading cryptocurrency as a refuge of value. Jimmy Song, a leading Bitcoin influencer, talked about the volatility of Bitcoin and called it “a store of value”.
Song, in his recent video of Off the Chain, tried to argue that Bitcoin is a store of value, like real estate and stocks, and pointed out that, like any “store of value” asset, Bitcoin was also volatile, but that did not make it less than a coin.